The Future of Retail Expansion in the Middle East: What Brands and Developers Need to Know

Author: James Poole, Co-Founder of Retail Consulting District

Retail expansion in the Middle East is entering a more strategic era.

For international and regional brands, entering the GCC is no longer simply a matter of finding an available retail unit in a prominent shopping centre. Successful expansion now requires a clear market-entry strategy, local consumer insight, the right commercial structure, access to decision-makers and a location that supports long-term growth.

For landlords and developers, the challenge has also evolved. Filling space is not enough. Retail destinations must attract the right combination of brands, experiences and operators to increase footfall, dwell time and repeat visitation.

These themes were recently explored by James Poole, Co-Founder of Retail Consulting District, in an interview with Gulf Magazine on the future of retail expansion in the Middle East.

Why is retail expansion accelerating across the Middle East?

The Middle East is increasingly viewed as a serious growth platform for international retailers rather than a secondary expansion market.

Dubai remains an important entry point because of its international consumer base, tourism economy, established retail infrastructure and concentration of globally recognised destinations. The Dubai Economic Agenda D33 aims to double the size of Dubai’s economy over a decade and consolidate the emirate’s position among the world’s top three global cities.

Tourism continues to reinforce this retail ecosystem. According to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism’s 2025 performance report, Dubai welcomed 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025, an increase of 5% compared with 2024.

Saudi Arabia is creating a different but equally significant opportunity. Its scale, evolving consumer market, destination development and wider Saudi Vision 2030 transformation are prompting international brands to consider the Kingdom earlier in their regional expansion plans.

Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman offer more selective opportunities, while regional brands from Saudi Arabia and the wider GCC are increasingly looking beyond their home markets.

The opportunity is substantial, but the region should not be treated as a single, uniform retail market.

What does a successful Middle East market-entry strategy require?

A successful retail market-entry strategy answers five questions before a lease is signed:

1. Which market offers the strongest fit for the brand?
2. Which locations attract the right customer profile?
3. What commercial terms can the business sustain?
4. Should the brand enter directly, through a franchise partner or through a joint venture?
5. Which landlords, developers and operators can support the expansion plan?

Each GCC market has different leasing practices, consumer expectations, regulatory considerations, landlord structures and levels of retail maturity.

A brand that performs strongly in Dubai may require a different location format, price architecture, operating partner or expansion sequence in Riyadh, Jeddah, Doha or Kuwait City.

This is why market selection should come before unit selection.

Through its work with retailers and brands entering and expanding across the Middle East, RCD helps clients assess markets, identify strategic locations, negotiate commercial terms and establish the right franchise or joint venture structures.

Why is a prime retail location no longer enough?

A prime location can create visibility, credibility and customer demand. However, location alone cannot compensate for an unsuitable unit, excessive occupancy costs, weak lease protections or a poorly timed market entry.

Brands should assess the complete commercial picture, including:

• Customer demographics and expected footfall
• Unit size, configuration and visibility
• Rental costs and service charges
• Turnover rent provisions
• Fit-out contributions and rent-free periods
• Lease duration and renewal rights
• Exclusivity and permitted-use clauses
• Opening obligations and handover conditions
• The destination’s wider tenant mix and positioning

The objective should not simply be to secure a prestigious address. It should be to secure a location and lease structure that give the business a realistic path to profitability.

For new-to-market brands, the first location is particularly important because it influences how consumers, landlords, investors and future partners perceive the concept.

RCD supported BooBoo Laand, a new family entertainment concept, in securing its first flagship location at Dubai Mall. The 25,000 sq ft site gave the brand immediate visibility and provided a platform for its wider regional and international expansion ambitions.

A first store is therefore more than a property decision. It is a positioning decision.

Should a brand enter directly, through a franchise or through a joint venture?

There is no single structure that works for every retail brand.

Direct market entry may provide greater control over operations, customer experience and brand standards. It can also require greater capital, local infrastructure and management capacity.

Franchising can accelerate expansion by giving a brand access to a local operator’s capital, market knowledge, team and existing relationships. The quality and strategic fit of the franchise partner are critical.

Joint ventures may create greater alignment between the brand and its regional partner, but require clear governance, decision-making rights and long-term commercial objectives.

The correct model depends on the brand’s resources, category, expansion targets, appetite for operational control and the capabilities of available partners.

RCD works with brands to identify and evaluate potential franchise, licensing and joint venture partners, rather than relying solely on unsolicited approaches or selecting an operator based on size alone.

The best partner is not necessarily the largest. It is the one with the right category experience, operational infrastructure, financial capacity, relationships and commitment to the brand.

How is the role of landlords and developers changing?

Retail landlords are no longer competing solely on location, architecture or total leasable area.

They are competing on the quality and relevance of the overall destination.

Consumers can purchase products online, visit multiple shopping centres or choose entertainment, hospitality and leisure venues instead. A retail destination therefore needs to offer a compelling reason to visit and return.

For landlords and developers, this means making more deliberate decisions about:

• Tenancy mix
• Category balance
• New-to-market concepts
• Food and beverage
• Family entertainment
• Wellness and lifestyle
• Community requirements
• Customer journey and dwell time
• Destination positioning
• Long-term asset performance

RCD supports shopping-centre developers, mixed-use developments and existing retail assets through tenant acquisition, tenancy mix optimisation, retail strategy and destination positioning.

The objective is not to fill every unit with the most recognisable available name. It is to create a complementary mix of concepts that strengthens the destination as a whole.

Why is experiential retail becoming more important?

Experiential retail gives customers reasons to visit physical destinations that cannot be fully replicated online.

Across the Middle East, this is increasing demand for concepts spanning family entertainment, hospitality, wellness, food and beverage, leisure, lifestyle and interactive brand experiences.

However, “experiential” should not be treated as a decorative label.

A concept must still have:

• A sustainable commercial model
• Strong operational capability
• Clear customer demand
• Appropriate space requirements
• Repeat-visit potential
• A credible local or regional expansion plan

The strongest experiential concepts combine entertainment or discovery with commercial discipline. They generate footfall while also contributing to the wider positioning and performance of the destination.

Why do local relationships matter in Middle East retail expansion?

Retail remains a relationship-driven industry, particularly across the Middle East.

Access to the right landlord, developer, franchise group or joint venture partner can influence which opportunities a brand sees, when it sees them and how seriously its proposal is considered.

Many of the strongest retail opportunities are not unlocked through cold outreach alone. They emerge through trusted relationships, established credibility and an understanding of the stakeholder’s commercial priorities.

This is one reason RCD operates as a founder-led retail leasing advisory firm. Clients work directly with the founders rather than through junior account managers or intermediaries.

RCD’s founders, Youssef Bounaga and James Poole, bring more than 25 years of combined retail and landlord experience. Their backgrounds include senior roles across Emaar, Aldar, GMG and other major regional organisations, with experience spanning more than 600 stores and relationships across 25 landlords and over 170 retail destinations.

This experience on both the landlord and retailer sides helps RCD structure opportunities that reflect the priorities of all parties.

A practical framework for entering or expanding across the GCC

Brands considering retail expansion in the Middle East should approach the process in six stages.

1. Define the expansion objective

Establish whether the priority is brand visibility, revenue growth, franchise development, portfolio diversification or long-term regional presence.

2. Prioritise markets

Evaluate customer demand, competitive intensity, operating requirements, available partners and the quality of the location pipeline.

3. Select the appropriate entry model

Compare direct operation, franchising, licensing and joint venture structures based on the brand’s capabilities and objectives.

4. Build a location strategy

Identify the cities, destinations and unit formats that match the concept rather than pursuing locations based only on prominence.

5. Negotiate the complete commercial package

Review rent, incentives, service charges, fit-out support, lease protections, performance obligations and renewal provisions together.

6. Plan beyond the first opening

A flagship launch should support a wider portfolio strategy. Brands should understand where the second, fifth and tenth locations could operate before committing to the first.

What is the outlook for retail growth in the Middle East?

The outlook remains positive, but the market is becoming more selective.

International brands face increasing competition for the strongest locations and regional partners. At the same time, landlords are assessing new concepts more carefully, looking for businesses that can demonstrate operational credibility, customer relevance and sustainable expansion plans.

The UAE is likely to remain a valuable regional launchpad, while Saudi Arabia presents substantial opportunities for brands capable of navigating its scale and evolving destination landscape. Other GCC markets can provide attractive growth when approached with a selective, market-specific strategy.

Regional brands also have an expanding opportunity to move in the opposite direction, using success in Saudi Arabia, the UAE or other GCC markets as a platform for wider international expansion.

The brands most likely to succeed will be those that combine ambition with preparation. That means choosing markets carefully, securing commercially sustainable locations, finding capable partners and building relationships before opportunities become urgent.

How can RCD support your retail expansion?

Retail Consulting District connects brands, retailers, landlords and developers with the right markets, locations, commercial partners and growth opportunities across the Middle East and internationally.

RCD supports clients with:

• Market entry and international expansion
• Prime retail location acquisition
• Commercial and lease negotiations
• Rent reviews and renewals
• Franchise and joint venture partnerships
• Tenant acquisition
• Tenancy mix optimisation
• Retail strategy and destination positioning

Every project is led directly by RCD’s founders.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is retail expansion?

Retail expansion is the process of growing a brand into new locations or markets. It can include opening directly operated stores, appointing franchise partners, forming joint ventures, securing new leases or expanding an existing store portfolio.

Which Middle Eastern market should a retail brand enter first?

The right first market depends on the brand’s category, target customer, operating model, pricing, available partners and expansion objectives. Dubai can provide international visibility, while Saudi Arabia offers significant scale. Other GCC markets may provide more targeted opportunities.

Does a brand need a local franchise partner to enter the GCC?

Not always. Brands may enter directly, through franchising, under a licence agreement or through a joint venture. The appropriate structure depends on the market, category, investment requirements and desired level of operational control.

What does a retail leasing advisor do?

A retail leasing advisor helps brands identify suitable markets and locations, approach landlords, assess commercial opportunities, negotiate lease terms and develop expansion strategies. Advisors may also support franchise and joint venture partner searches.

How can landlords attract premium and new-to-market brands?

Landlords need clear destination positioning, a credible leasing strategy, commercially appropriate units and direct access to brand decision-makers. Premium brands will also assess the wider tenant mix, customer profile, project delivery and long-term asset strategy.

Why is tenancy mix important?

Tenancy mix determines how the brands, services, restaurants, entertainment concepts and amenities within a destination complement one another. A strong tenancy mix can improve footfall, dwell time, repeat visits and overall asset performance.